Study of a Western Disturbance of 2023 Using Satellite-Based Observation, Reanalysis Data, and Numerical Simulation

Abstract

Western Disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale, extratropical storm systems that influence winter precipitation across northwest India. This study focuses on a specific WD event that occurred from 24– 25 March 2023, affecting Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Punjab. The analysis integrates satellite observations, ERA-5 reanalysis data, and simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate the model's performance. The novelty of this study lies in its event-specific analysis of a recent WD and in quantifying the model's predictive accuracy over complex Himalayan terrain. The WRF model effectively captures snowfall (RMSE: 1.40 mm), U10 wind (RMSE: 0.63 m/s), and V10 wind (RMSE: 0.30 m/s), but underperforms significantly for rainfall (RMSE: 4.46 mm). Time-series analysis reveals inverse relationships between total cloud cover and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and between snowfall and wind speed, consistent with expected meteorological dynamics. These findings highlight the strengths and limitations of mesoscale numerical modeling for WD forecasting. The study underscores the need for improved rainfall simulation techniques in complex terrains and supports the integration of high-resolution models for better regional forecasting, agricultural planning, and disaster management.

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